Wednesday, 17 December 2014

Bullpen Imports?

It's beginning to look like the Jays' view that Dusty McGowan's $4mm option was too much for a set-up reliever may have been a misreading of the market. Jason Motte - who missed almost all of the last two seasons - Just got $4.5mm for one year from the Cubs and a lot of middling players are getting pretty nice money.

Looking out at the increasingly unimpressive assortment of free agent relievers, more and more I'm hearing the music from Back to the Future in my head. I'm sitting here looking at Fangraphs ranking of Steamer projections for free agent relievers and it inexplicably doesn't include the one guy guy who's still out there that I have higher expectations for than anyone who is on the list. And that man (obviously) heads my list of potential signings:

1. Casey Janssen - If you consider Gregerson/Neshak the floor, and Miller/Robertson the ceiling, then Janssen should make between 6.5 and 9.5 AAV on his next deal for at least three seasons. If the Jays could get him to agree to 3/24 they ought just go ahead and do it unless they think they can do better by trading mid-to-low minors prospects.

2. Sergio Romo - I've seen commentators express lukewarm enthusiasm for Romo, noting his numbers went backwards last year and he lost the closer job at mid-season. His results DID go backwards. For two weeks. Between June 13 and June 28 he had tree bad outings in five appearances, giving up 9 runs in a collective 4.1 IP. Outside that stretch, his ERA was 2.52 and there was no good reason for him to have lost the closer job. In fact, take out June 13 alone and (5 ER in 1/3 IP) and his ERA drops from 3.72 to 2.97.

Like Janssen, I'd be happy to go ahead and sign him for a similar number, only preferring Janssen under the "devil you know" rubric. OTOH, that might be the very reason they'd prefer Romo for all I know. Less than a week ago Benny Fresh tweeted the Jays apparently hadn't checked in on him and AA is quoted as saying he's looking more to trades but I remind you how long it took after "I can't envision trading a starter" to turn into "We traded JA Happ."

3. Francisco Rodriguez* - talent wise, you might even prefer his stuff to Janssen's but he comes with a lot of off-field baggage the Jays presumably want little part of.

4. Rafiel Soriano -  slightly older than K-Rod, ratios not quite as good, but tends toward fly balls fairly heavily, which tends to make him a less attractive fit for Skydome. OTOH, he doesn't beat his wife apparently.

5. Jason Grilli - entering his age 38 season, which means you don't have to guarantee three years or even two in order to have a shot. Four good years in a row, excepting the portion of last season which occurred before the trade to the Angels.

6. Dustin McGowan - I don't think last year necessarily indicated the start of a downward spiral, but if you could get him for a year and an option, at around $3mm for the first year, he's probably gonna be better than the rest of the scraps left on the market.

7. Carlos Villianueva - Remember this guy? Turns out he's much better out of the 'pen than starting, pitches best in high leverage situations, and has consistently good rates  until he approaches 50 pitches then he goes south in a hurry. Used correctly, the Jays would do well to have him back.

8. Tim Stauffer- If you get the 2013 guy, great, if you get the 2014 guy, that's trouble. The former had fine home/road splits and pitched well in pressure situations, the latter...didn't.

9. Burke Badenhop - Steady, unspectacular RH who has good control, ordinary K rates but  an unusually high GB rate.

10. Jesse Crain - if healthy, would be a solid pick-up and true asset, whether he'll be healthy I can't say.  Not to mention the passport skill ;) - oh, but he is flyball prone so there's that too.

Also out there: Alexi Ogando(health?), Joba Chamberlain (perpetual under-achiever),Tom Grozalanny (best LH left), John Axford (He used to be a closer?), Scott Downs (minor league deal with invite just to see if he's done or not)

To me, if you can get Crain and Downs into camp ad see what they got, it's a no-brainer, whatever else you do.

Trades? Sure, but who the hell can predict trades? Start with this: Norris is only available if he brings an Ace SP with multiple years of control. Basically, Hammels. So if you take him out of the equation, is there someone with a closer you can reasonably expect to trust that you can get without dealing Norris? I dunno. I droll over Chapman but...I just don't know. Navarro might get you something, but there's only so man teams he works for. White Sox, D'Backs, Pirates, Dodgers? Braves? Rays? At least we can look them over I guess.

Tampa - Come up with a couple of enticing prospects to go with and try to pry lose Jake McGee?
Atlanta - David Carpenter? Yes, one we let get away.
LA - they are dying to trade Brandon League, JP Howell had a better year. But if you couldn't get better elsewhere, and they would kick in $5mm or so...
Pittsburgh - Melancon and Watson both look like closers (one already is of course) but either would need an infusion of good prospects to pry away.
Arizona - Evan Marshall or Randall Delgado would be a promising acquisition.
Chicago - If they had a closer, he'd have taken the job from those who attempted it in '14 (you ca see why they wanted Robertson!) - if there's any pitcher here to ask for, you might try getting still-young Daniel Webb back and see if you could teach him to command the zone. He would be in the majors ar 24 with that walk rate unless he had a live arm.

Looking ahead. . .

I still owe y'all a prospect list in some form, and I have unexpressed views about the moves so far.

Friday, 12 December 2014

The Bullpen and other Meeting thoughts

So, while I await whether or not there's any fire to the smoke leaking out regarding the Blue Jays and SS(potential 2B) Takashi Toritani it seems the subject on everyone's lips and keyboards is the bullpen. So let me see if I can reel off one of my old school omnibus posts looking over the possibilities.

Lately there's a sudden wave of chatter that the Blue Jays don't have nearly as much to spend as previously estimated. My take on that is (obviously) ill-informed since I'm not privy to how much they react to exchange rates and such, but the whole conversation strikes me as a bit of an over-correction. I don't think that the very-recent trend towards not acting is as much a function of money as it is a wise estimation of the level to which signees are being overvalued, either in AAV or number of years.

This is a team, remember, that declined to bring back Janssen and McGowan for around the same cost next year as Andrew Miller got (and Janssen's track record over the last 4-5 years completely annihilates Miller's - the last half season notwithstanding). There's more in play here than a payroll ceiling. That said, they are sitting a tic over $124mm by my estimation, and it's pretty clear Navarro and his $5mm are going somewhere - more on that later. It's true, as Stoten and others have mentioned, that there are $5mm in pending buyouts at the end of the year, but there's only 1 or 2 mil tat even remotely likely to be paid out. I'm still sticking with ~$20mm to go (assuming Navarro), at least, which would be a paltry 3.6% raise over 2014.

So, taking a long look at the situation, what do we find? First, let's note well: If they wanted Janssen on the team as a person or a ballplayer, they should have picked him up. The cost compared to his track record was good value. Either they saw troubling issues with his abilities, or there was some clubhouse red flag we don't know about. Laying those aside, there are still FAR worse plays than bringing him and McGowan back, although that will cost more now than it would have to have picked up the options. (As an aside, wouldn't it have made sense to pick up Janssens and traded him like they did Lind if they didn't want him? Seems ike an opportunity lost...)

Second, the internal options are not as depleted as has been portrayed. There IS a distinct hole at closer (albeit not without untested internal options) and one would like an import there and perhaps a more high-powered RH for the 8th, but it's worth a closer look at what's here.

1. Brett Cecil - damn skippy set-up man (and not just against lefties) and the leading (depending on how you use Sanchez) internal candidate to close. He'd be a pretty good option at the latter but would leave a significant hole at the former.

2. Aaron Sanchez - few doubt he could be a star as a closer assuming he could muster the "closer mentality". As things stand, he is (rightly) penciled in as the 5th starter but if the ays hit march without a closer option, and with a reasonable alternative (Norris, Estrada, someone else?) for that spot, they may decide to go a year with Sanchez and re-evaluate next winter.

3. Aaron Loup - Anyone remember that Loup wasn't high on anyone's top prospect lists in 2012? Or before? Coming into 2012 he'd been mentioned just a little as a guy with good upside who was probably a couple of years away. By mid-season he'd been promoted from AA and would never see the minors again. Just goes to show that good bullpens are not just made up of big money free agents or costly trades. Like Cecil, he's a home-grown mainstay.

4. Todd Redmond - very under-appreciated by the fans after last year's fine job. A waiver claim from the Orioles in March of 2013, Redmond demonstrates another road to quality bullpen acquisitions. Redmond played a crucial role in '14 as a middle/long reliever and sported a 1.98 ERA on August 14 before his worst outing of the year. He gave up runs in 7 of his last 9 outings and either he was running
out of gas or maybe hiding some mild injury. In any case, he's a key part of the '15 bullpen.

5. Marco Estrada - Above average Starter in '12-'13, and quality reliever in the second half of '14. Much has been said about the 29 homers he allowed last season - but he only allowed TWO of those after the break. The first half seems to be a rather obvious outlier.

Laying aside the possibility Daniel Norris can't be denied, either Estrada or Sanchez will be in the rotation and the other in the 'pen - so other than the occurance of injury, you have 4 spots filled. You need three more in the majors, lus depth.

6. Steve Delebar - the Jays got him at the 2012 trade deadline for a guy they were done with (full disclosure, I really thought Eric Thames was better than that) and who hasn't played in the majors for two years. He was consistently good until May 23 of last season. Then his control went sideways and he found himself back in AAA 4 weeks later. There he did excellent work in all respects except that the walk rate was still too high. There is every possibility he becomes the RH set-up man we need. We just can't afford to presume he will.

7. Chad Jenkins - another Rodney Dangerfield, cursed with too many options (he still has one remaining). Demonstrating the third alternate method to filling a 'pen - the minor league starter who's not good enough to start in the majors. Not possessed of great strikeout ability, all he does is get outs. If not for the option he'd be a lock to break camp in the Jays bullpen.

8. Kyle Drabek - out of options, this is his make or break spring. Take out one bad outing (the next-last of the season) and he posted a 2.45 ERA over the last two months pitching in relief. He recorded 4 walks and 14 K in 18.1 IP. Despite the fact that the Jays inexplicably left him off the September roster, this might be your best dark horse candidate to play a key role.

For all the hand-wringing about the '14 'pen, that's a solid group. It's true the bullpen collectively ranked poorly in the last season, BUT that figure include the Santos implosion (take him out alone and the bullpen ERA drops from 4.09 to 3.88) and several others no longer in the picture. The collective ERA of the players still in the Jays' possession (along with Estrada's relief work and minus Stroman's) is 2.73!

But depth, you say? Much more untested. But here we go:
1. Rob Rasmussen - Lefty looked good in tiny major league sample. Quite good in AAA, solid minor league history. Legitimately goodd enough to fill in in the majors at least.
2. Liam Hendricks - dominant at AAA, still only 25. There ought to be a way to translate that to at lest a replacement level reliever.
3. Ryan Tepera - did good work after being shifted from starting to the bullpen for 2014.
4. Cory Burns - got hittable when he hit the PCL (for the Rangers) but his track record in previous organizations looks excellent. A serious dark horse candidate.
5/6. Bo Schultz/Colt Hymes - I dunno. The Jays thought enough of them to carry them on the 40 so they will be in the major league camp at ST. Can't see the attraction myself.
7. Blake McFarland - no pedigree (a lot of good major league relievers don't bring one with them) but he dominated in the AFL after a fine season split between Dunedin and New Hampshire. He's put himself on the radar.
8. Tyler Ybarra - pegged by some observers as a breakout candidate, the LH pitcher dominated Hi-A ball in 2013 and took a step back in '14 at AA. Said to be the sort that could put it together at any time.
9. Ricky Romero - yeah I know, but he did finally get the knee fixed and it would be a helluva story wouldn't it?
10. John Stilson - recovering from shoulder surgery, probably a lost season ahead but his name ought to appear here somewhere.

Potential second half stories?

Alex has mentioned Miguel Castro more than once. Like most young hard-throwers, his control needs continued refinement, but he will start the season in A Ball and if the Jays think he can help the bullpen this year - as Alex seems to - then they may fast-track him ala Norris/Graveman so long as he isn't overwhelmed. Others who might come fast include Roberto Osuna, who will be far enough removed from his TJ to be back to his old self. He may begin the year in the warmth of Florida but should arrive in AA in early-to-mid may at the latest. Speaking of Graveman, Matt Boyd and Taylor Cole are both lower profile prospects who dominated at Dunedin a stumbled in brief tries at AA. They should open in NH this time and fit the profile of starters who might better serve the team in relief (particularly in that there are so many very good young starters higher on the list than they. For a much longer shot, lefty Jario Labourt might be your sleeper.

In a few days I'll take a look outside the organization to see what, in my estimation, makes sense. But don't despair too much. There's a solid core here.

Wednesday, 3 December 2014

Ins and Outs

I had decided that, barring some action in between, I'd wait until after the tender deadline to comment again, reacting to whatever the Jays decided to do last night. Of course, it being Alex, what he decided to do today was more interesting. Alex waits for no (wo)man or meeting. So we have another full plate of implications to sort through.

As you might have heard, the Jays shipped JA Happ off to Seattle a few hours ago for Michael Saunders. A mere two days after mentioning on live radio that he didn't envision trading any member of his rotation. At first blush, as I tweeted to Andrew Stoten, I didn't like it - I figured Happ was worth more than that. But upon further consideration, several factors jumped out.

  • The market is skewed.  There's an abundance of mid-rotation SP options, a dearth of OF options. That makes the former less valuable, relative to the market, and  the latter more so.
  • The financial savings are significant.Saunders makes $3.8m less than Happ in 2015 (and has an extra year of control Combined with the fact that it also takes them out of the picture on Melky Cabrera - whom they had already reportedly offered 3/39 without success and the swing is over $14m.
  • the defensive upgrade is significant. Saunders actually projects to a HIGHER WAR than Cabrera in 2015, thanks largely to the glove. That's before any rivision for home park.
  • Speaking of home park, that stands to make a not inconsiderable difference in theoretical offensive expectations. While my initial lack of enthusiasm was based on the fear that 2014 was the offensive outlier of his career, Mike Wilner points out that Saunders' road OPS over the last three seasons is .780 - and in a depressed offensive environment, that'll play.  Among qualifying AL left fielders, that would have come in at #4 last year.
  • Kevin Pillar stands ready to protect him from LH pitching if need be.  AA anointed him the "everyday left fielder" but his splits show weakness versus lefties so it would behoove the Jays to keep that in mind. 
  • Saunders just passed his 28th birthday and most observers feel he hasn't yet approached his talent level. Cabrera will be 30 next year and we know what he is
  • In 62 plate appearances at Skydome (yeah, I said it!) his OPS is .888 (SS caveat of course)
So...yeah...a Saunders/Pillar set in LF (not  strictly a platoon maybe but...) projects to- defense included - every bit the value Cabrera would give and at around 1/4 the price. All that before we discuss the opening in the rotation that now presumably falls to Sanchez or Norris - unless AA surprises us again.

In other news...

The Blue Jays shaved $6.5m off their projected payroll next year by non-tendering Justin Smoak, Andy Dirks, and John Mayberry, Jr. last night.  Then spent one of those to bring Smoak back with an apparent intent to commit to him as the most-days first baseman in 2015. I'm not prepared to argue that the Jays can release the hitter that scouts saw when he was one of the 10 or 15 best prospects in baseball, but apparently they think the see something. AA says his analytics people think they can get a lot of offensive upside out of him. Let's hope they are right.

Looking ahead towards potential lineups, there's a couple of obvious options:

1. Reyes
2. Martin
3. Bautista
4. Encarnacion
5. Donaldson
6. Smoak
7. Saunders/Pillar
8. Izturus/Tolison (Travis?)
9. Pompey

or plan B

1. Reyes
2. Saunders/Pillar
3. Bautista
4. Encarnacion
5. Donaldson
6. Smoak
7. Martin
8. Izturus/Tolison (Travis?)
9. Pompey

The latter in the situation in which Saunders shows himself maximizing his OB skills while Martin goes back to hitting more like a catcher, OR if Gibby decides he wants the best use out of Saunder's speed.

As always, of course, so far...

Saturday, 29 November 2014

Oh My!

By now you know what happened and have gotten fairly acquainted with the basic details. I waited a day to post on the subject in order to ear all the comments from AA and the players come out to get the whole context.  I've also, of course, heard a lot of commentary from folks who get paid to do that sort of thing and those who don't. Therefore, let me distill all that noise into  those facts which seem to me to be most salient.

First, let's notice what Oakland gets:

Brett Lawrie - Honestly, I had MASSIVE expectations for him. In my mind, he'd spend 15-20 years in a Jays uniform and would be our George Brett/Cal Ripkin type cornerstone. Probably no Blue Jays fan had a higher view of him than me. But due to injuries and some lingering issues with swing mechanics, he's not that guy yet. Of course, he may never be though, and that's the sole reason he was expendable. In essence, the A's got a guy who may end up better than Donaldson or may always be a great glove with a frustrating offensive game. The Jays paid the other guys to the A's in order to shift that bit of risk in exchange for more certainty.

And the thing is, he's only three years from free agency so there's every possibility he'll be dealt again in a couple of years. Maybe we could get him back to play 2B?

Franklin Barreto - He is, to use one of Wilner's favorite terms, a lottery ticket. But in this case the prize if you win is rich indeed. He currently plays SS to mixed reviews - LaCava says the jays were very impressed with his improvement over the course of the season - but whether he ends up there, or 2B, or CF, that bat plays. He's likely to be a consensus top 100 prospect this off-season and if he continues that sort of hitting he'll shoot up that list. No one is calling him a replacement for Addison Russel yet, but there's a decent chance the will in a year or two.

Sean Nolin - the most under the radar guy in the deal and...
Kendell Gravemen - considered together...

Here are the Blue Jays starting pitchers already ahead of these two:

These are other Jays SP prospects with higher ceilings:
arguably Smoral, Labourt, Tirado, and Borucki

Other SP prospects similar to, but further away, than those two:

Then there are swing guys who can spot start:

So while they are both good pitchers they are, in the long term, unlikely to be part of the starting five (even eliminating the veterans, they are no higher on the list than 7 and 8) and in the near term, they have 7 good options and five emergency options - and Ricky Romero, technically. Nolin was on track to be another Brett Cecil (because of the depth, not his talent level) and Graveman could have been a reliable middle reliever getting tons of ground ball outs, in a role similar to what Redmond had this year. That has value but not as muc as they do to Oakland.

For the A's, these are guys who have a legit shot at winning rotation spots for the A's - and preforming well. Particularly Nolin who has constantly been in the shadow of sexier prospects in our system. BA slots them in as Top 10 prospects in their system and the two BEST pitcher prospects.

On my ongoing (as yet unpublished) list, I had Barreto at #4, Nolin at #13 (7th pitcher) and Graveman at #23 (11th among pitchers) which is lower than most have him. 

The Blue Jays get, in return, the certainty Lawrie could not (yet?) provide. Seen in the context of the overall off-season, this is widely described as a complete culture change. To some it might look like AA is constantly changing direction but it seems to me to be a perfectly straight-forward program, adjusted for circumstances that didn't work out.

First, acquire a ton of minor league talent via a well thought out acquisition plan taking advantage of "exploits" in the system. When those were patched, use that talent to acquire veteran talent while modifying the acquisition process. Realize the first year might have been a "gelling" issue but after the second year, identify problems and re-mediate them. The trope afield online is that many of the exiting players were either complacent, or somewhat immature and it's hard for the fans to be certain what to believe.

BUT we do know that Martin is considered the king of clubhouse leadership and Donaldson has also got a very strong "winning atmosphere" reputation. Expect that pursuit to continue. Oh, and by the way, Donaldson will cost ~$3m more than Lawrie this year, and significantly more over the following three years of control - but the revenue from playoff baseball helps  with that kind of investment, no?

One other point-
Wilner commented on the Blue Jays This Week podcast that with two big subtractions (actually 3 if you count Rasmus) and two big additions they are short of last years offense, however...what does the WAR projection (via Steamer) say now about the Jays in 2015 vs. those who've left?

CA: Martin: 3.9
1B: Encarnacion: 3.7
2B: Izturus/Tollison: 0.6
3B: Donaldson: 5.6
SS: Reyes: 3.0
LF: Pillar: 1.4
CF: Pompey: 0.4
RF: Bautista: 5.4
DH: Dirks: 1.5
(Pompey, Dirks and 2B pro-rated to full season)\

Cabrera (LF) - 1.7
Lawrie (3B) - 4.0
Lind (DH) - 1.6
Gose or Rasmus (CF) 1.4 (Both have same projection)
Kawasaki (2B) - 0.0
Navarro (C, presumably gone) - 0.6

So comaring those cone to those replacing them, the total is 9.3 gone and 12.8 in and it's safe to say Dirks won't be the everyday DH. Not that projects like this are a guarantee, but at least they are objective.
Less objectively but not completely homerish:
Martin is pretty clearly the best catcher in the AL as it stands (w/respect to potential McCann rebound)
Encarnacion is no less than top 3 in the league
Reyes is the best SS in the AL (even with shaky D)
Donaldson in no worse than top 2, depending on how much you like Beltre
Bautista is clearly the best RF
And of the players who could contest these claims, no two of them play on the same team.

Looking ahead: The winter meetings begin a week from tomorrow and the Jays are not yet complete (even though they are arguably as good as any team in baseball already) - so I'm not going to invest the time in a prospect list until after the dust settles.

Thursday, 20 November 2014

Money, Roster, and Juan Gone

I'll refrain from crowing over predicting Francisco's departure because, well, who didn't? Amiright?

I will casually note that I have repeatedly mentioned (mostly in other places obviously that DickeyThole was a tradable commodity which seem to be growing into a potential thing but to clarify, I do not mean "dump" - he has real marketable value. My suggestion was a re-allocation of resources concept.

In previous years I'd have gone 3,000 words or so refining the details of the presumed roster but those details are so much mainstream part of the conversation anymore that it would be redundant. Cotts Baseball Contracts, linked in the sidebar, is the go-to reference for salary commitments and it shows$108.55 million in guaranteed contracts (10 on the roster plus Ricky Ro) for 2015 (not including any buyout clauses except for Romero's). Likewise, MLBTR has scooped up what has become te accepted standard model for projecting arbitration-eligible player salaries (not that I don't reserve the right to quibble). The current total there is $17.3mm for 7 Blue Jays. That leaves room for 8 pre-arb guys who will collectively earn between $4 and $4.5mm. Pending future roster moves which begin, potentially, tomorrow (more on that in a sec). That totals just ever so slightly more than $130 million (notwithstanding every DL trip of course adds to the actual payroll)

That put them $7mm from last year's total, 13 from the widely assumed 150 working budget, and with theorized but unconfirmed room beyond that. My suggestion to deal Dickey for a good offensive player (one year of Justin Upton? five years of Matt Kemp?) presumes there is, in fact, a ceiling this year and it's better to fill one of the remaining holes via trade than free agency.

About that potential roster movement, here's my guess at the top 5 players mst likely to leave the Jays' 40 man roster tomorrow:

1. Bo Schultz (RHP) - most fungible
2. Matt Hague (1B/3B) - should go unclaimed
3. Cory Burns (RHP)- great control, but good day to sneak a guy through
4. Colt Hynes (LHP) - ditto, except he's also a lefty
5. Liam Hendricks (RHP) - Again, they want him, but with teams setting rosters you might sneak him through.

And the top 5 that need to be protected:

1. John Stilson (RHP) - he's coming off injury so drafting team would have flexibility; has highest upside; is closest to major league ready
2. Taylor Cole (RHP) - assuming Jays don't think his breakout was low-minors illusion
3. Blake McFarland (RFP) - AFL work put him on rival teams' radar, relievers are easier to carry through the first year.
4. Andy Burns (3B) - best position player in need of protection.
5. Sean Ochinko (C) - like McFarland, AFL raised profile. Threshold for catcher's bats are lower. Ghost of Yan Gomes looms.

As Ben Balder tweeted, it's sort of a baseball geek holiday.

Monday, 17 November 2014

Here. We. Go.

Talk about timing, eh?

As you surely know by now the Jays have, this morning, announced their presence with authority. They've sign catcher Russel Martin to what, assuming reports are accurate, the longest and richest free agent deal they've ever given to a non-incumbent. Moreover, despite Martin being only an average offensive player (which is above average for catchers) before last season, the deal has been initially met with almost universal praise from the "experts."

The reports say 5/82 which is, in a vacuum, something of an overpay. Ideally probably something like 4/52 cor 5/65 is more sensible BUT in a game flush with money driving up salaries around the game, and for a team with no previous commitments in the last two years of the contract, an extra 3 mil in overpay is NOTHING. As for 2015, the projected payroll - full breakdown coming soon - stands at just about $131 million which is about $6m short of last years payroll. That's before any other moves which seem certain to come, such as non-tenders and trades (I already assumed Francisco is gone).

As others have noted, Martin's value is more when he doesn't have a bat in his hand. He's regarded as a master pitch framer (one report has him bringing +1.4 wins in that regard compared to Navarro bringing a -1.4 figure), a master at handling the staff which can't be overstated with the wave of young pitching that will roll in over the next five seasons, and one of the best clubhouse leaders in the game - key for a team constantly whispered about in terms of clubhouse chemistry.

Martin may be fairly described as the best possible target for the Jays in this years off-season market.

The consensus, with which I concur, is that this is the first in what is likely to be a series of moves.. The discussion off Navarro getting at bats as a DH is pretty silly, because an average starting catcher in a thin market at a mere $5 mil salary has plenty of trade value and they still have 2-3 holes in the lineup and a closer job to suss out. I still think, even though the Braves having dealt Hayward kind of ruins my Upton idea, that Dickey/Thole (NOT Buehrle) are on the market for a player than can fill one of their holes. Navarro for Luis Valbuena for example? You get the idea.

An unequivocally positive move and positive indicator for the balance of the off-season.

Saturday, 15 November 2014

This may not end well

I swore I was done. After 2013, my highest expectations having been well and truly crushed, I quit. Walked away. I had plenty to do and other things to write about and baseball was just too damned irrational for me to write about. Even this summer when things looked good for a while, I was prevented by having been too severely injured to type more than a couple hundred characters at a time (I'm still constrained to 2-finger typing or a Psychotic Dragon program).

Still, I allowed myself to pay attention. Then I paid attention to the (very good) draft. Then to Pompey and Norris and Barreto.God help me to the playoff chase. So here I am. Once again so enamored with my own opinion that I have to put it on the internet in quantities larger than 140 characters.

Be advised: my typing is worse and my desire to proofread has not improved. I waste entirely too much time online plus I've a passion for debating about equality issues that are actually important so content may (or may not) be sporadic. I'm not ever going to be breaking the latest news, nor plowing into the shadowy depths of sabermatics and beyond. Mostly, it will just be my opinion with a bit of rational for why I hold it. Oh, and the sidebar is hopelessly out of date.

There was a time I imagined myself to one day take my rightful place next to Tao and DJF and the other Jays bloggers of the first rank. But frankly I never worked hard enough to earn that and I have no business in that company. Still, a few dozen of you kept reading (plus, if you believe the stats on the dashboard, a sizable number of bots) so we'll see how it goes.

Here, then, to kick it off, are some random snippits of baseball content:

1. I have an entirely irrational degree of hope that martin is signed, even if the contract isn't sensible (the 5/72.5 mentioned at MLBTR? I'd totally do that)

2. Love the Gose deal because I love Pompey and really like Kevin "Reed Johnson" Pillar.

3. Fine with losing Melky, fine with the 3/39 rumored. But have a better - IMO - idea (see below)

4. Wonder if Travis won't start in AAA for a couple of months unless he ius crazy good in ST so they can go through motions of not stepping on Izturus? Or are they past such posturing? (Fun fact: From May 27 until end of his season, Travis hit .321/.385/.506/.891)

5. reports are Braves need pitching, might trade OF. Proposed - Dickey/Thole for Justin Upton. Salaries almost wash, Jays fully replace Melky without long-term commitment, Braves get quality guy who'll probably do better in NL plus an option on him for 2016, Dickey gets close to home. In fact, I'd probably try to get them to kick in one of those relievers they can spare in consideration of that second year.


Ready to rock and enough salary left to sign K-Rod to close. What's not to like?

Monday, 1 July 2013

Mid-season Farm Report

With the major league team back in contention (despite a less than pleasing 7 game road trip this week) and the All Star game approaching, to be followed by the trade deadline - let's take time out to look at the Farm and see how it's going.

And the truth is, it's not been great so far. Part of that is that the preponderance of the Jays more interesting players are young enough to be on the short-season teams who've only been playing for, at most, a couple of weeks. The sample size is just not there to get real excited (or disappointed) about anyone, although I am going to note some interesting early trends. also, a few of the higher profile guys have lost significant time to injury.

But among the players at the upper levels who have accumulated significant work, the list of guys who've advanced their status is pretty short. There's another group who should be doing better but are not sucking, and then there are guys who are gambling with their right to even be called "prospect" (I'm looking at you, Deck).

Reviewing my Top 50 list from January, I find that...

  • 19 of them are assigned to short season teams
  • 10 missed significant time to injury or suspension
  • 1 is out of the organization (and another has probably lost his rookie status but I included him anyway, one last time)
  • 7 have been significant disappointments
  • Of those not counted above, only 3 have significantly boosted their status
Here's the mid season revision, with very brief notations:
(previous ranking in Parenthesis)

1. Aaron Sanchez [SP] (1)  - lost some time to DL, shows improved control
2. Roberto Osuna [SP] (2) - ditto, continues to impress, injury is concerning
3. Marcus Stroman [SP] (3) - as advertised. 13 ER in 8 outings, 7 of them in one game. Expect to see him in Buffalo before August.
4. DJ Davis [CF] (4) - Raw, 4 triples in first 10 games, good start in small sample
5. Daniel Norris [SP] (5) - was sinking but found aggressiveness; 1.59 ERA in last six appearances, then injured.
6. AJ Jimenez [C] (8) - Some injury trouble but has absolutely RAKED when healthy. Currently sporting a .400 BA in NH  in 75 AB
7. Sean Nolin [SP] (5) - started on DL, has been fine since, save for one very bad start for Toronto. 
 8. Matt Smoral [SP] (7) - injury hampered, only one appearance so far.
9. Alberto Tirado [SP] (9) - insignificant sample
10. Anthony Alford [CF] (10) - insignificant sample, BUT, 6 walks in first 6 games in noticeable
11. John Stilson [RHRP] (11) - still need the walks to go down, but at his age in AAA...
12. Franklin Barreto [SS] (14) - insignificant sample, good early returns
13. Santiago Nessy [C] (13) - too many injuries for fair eval.
14. Christian Lopes [2B] (12) - good average, lacking some in OBP; advanced level for age
15. Kevin Pillar [CF] (21) -the most productive hitting prospect in the system this year, beating out AJJ only because of the latter's injuries. Since moving up to Buffalo (10 games) Pillar's stepped up his game sporting a 1.156 OPS
16. Chase DeJong [SP] (16)- off to a very nice start; Insignificant sample size (ISS)
17. Mitch Nay [3B] (20) - ISS, but nice start while others fell short.
18. Dewal Lugo [SS] (19) - ditto
19. Andrew Burns [3B] (44) - the third member of the club (with Pillar and Jimenez). Struggled in tiny sample since being promoted to AA. But has made a LOT of progress
20. Matt Dean [1B] (18) - slow start again, ISS
21. Dwight Smith [CF] (17) - good but not great so far.
22. Yefry Del Rosario [SP] (23) - ISS
23. Chad Jenkins [RHP] (25) - one for the road, Chad. I choose to ignore the suckage since his demotion for now. He did okay in Toronto.
24. Dalton Pompey [CF](27) - didn't earn the climb, but others slipped further
25. Adonys Cardona [SP] (15) - has really struggled so far.

Others of note not on the list:

* Joel Carreno [RHRP]- somewhat the pitching equivalent of Pillar, except he's back from flirting with obscurity. Has taken his results to the next level.
* Tyler Ybarra [LHRP]- well overdue for promotion from Dunedin
* Gustovo Pierre [3B] - like burns, he has struggleds for footing since promotion, unlike Burns he wasn't unstoppable before the promotion, but he did everything well on offense except take a walk (he had but 2 in 61 games, against 62 K's)
* Shane Dawson [SP]- Paired with the more heralded DeJong in Bluefield, he's matched him pitch for pitch.
* DJ Thon [SS] - started slow again, but has caught fire the last 10 games in a way he hasn't before as a pro. might yet be something there.
* More relievers making waves: Tony Davis and Ajay Meyers dominating in Dunedin; Will Browning and Ian Kadish owning the Midwest League for Lansing, with Kramer Champlin and Arik Sikula a mere half-step behind.

Finally, in non-prospect news:
* Buffalo 1B Mauro Gomez is hammering the IL, he has 24 homers so far.
* Sentimental favorite Adam Loewen has a 1.072 OPS for June
* Former SS Justin Jackson may yet turn into a reliever prospect, he lades the impressive Lansing 'pen with a 1.21 ERA in 22.1 innings.
* Eric Brown has dominated atthe front of the Vancouver rotation so far

We'll know more a couple of months from now.

Go Jays.

Wednesday, 19 June 2013

Hard Charging

For a team so very unfamiliar with long winning streaks (they haven't won more than six in a row since 2008) the current seven gamer must be very satisfying for the Toronto Blue Jays. Not only that, but they've posted a combine score of 41-11 in those games. Indeed, these are heady days for the Jays. Of course, it behooves us to heed Mike Wilner's oft-repeated observation: a team is never as good as it looks at it's best, nor as bad as it looks at it's worst. Still, in may ways this team is preforming now in a manner consistent with pre-season expectations (shaddup Adam!) and they are finally seeing the results.

Since May 5, when the team inexplicably found it's footing, the Blue Jays are 24-15 (a .615 winning %) for the second best record in the AL in that span (one game behind Oakland and WTF is up out there anyhow?) which is a pace which, were it maintained the rest of the season, would result in 91 wins  - that puts you right in the thick of the wild-card race. On the other hand, it's a pace that over a full season would get you 100 wins and certainly it's debatable whether this team is of that caliber. On the third hand, Jose Reyes is imminently ready to return, one assumes Brett Lawrie will be back at some point and step up his game, and Josh Thole is already an upgrade on Henry Blanco (and more besides, if Gibby will give him some of JP's mostly empty at-bats). And the best part is that, apart from Adam Lind, the horses of the offense are not performing at an unsustainable rate.

Here are the teams top six offensive producers over the last 38 games (and the rest have been no great shakes):

  1. Cabrera - .312 - .356 - .446 - .802
  2. Bautista - .285 - .370 - .487 - .857
  3. Encarnacion - .297 - .387 - .561 - .948
  4. Lind - .388 - .417 - .642 - 1.059
  5. Rasmus - .250 - .320 - .508 - .827
  6. DeRosa - .266 - .329 - .484 - .813

Yes, DeRosa is doing more than he's done since his peak years five years ago, but it's not insane and it's in half as many at bats as the others so it's not like the team is being driven by it. Lind is the obvious outlier but going forward, a regression is easily balanced by the presence of Reyes. It's reasonable to assume the offense IS this good.

On the mound, the bullpen has been, frankly, insanely good.

Janssen - 3.55, 1.11
Cecil - 1.40, 0.52
Delenbar - 1.50, 1.11
Loup - 0.90, 0.65
Oliver - 2.25, 1.13
Perez - 0.00, 0.50
Wagner - 0.96, 0.96 (when does THAT ever happen?)

The Starters?

Dickey - 4.53, 1.45
Buehrle - 3.46, 1.19
Johnson - 1.86, 1.14 (only 3 starts)
Rogers - (as Starter)  1.77, 0.98 (4 starts)
Wang - (tiny sample) 3.14, 1.53 (2 starts)
Morrow - 6.14, 1.36  (4 starts)
Jenkins - 3.60, 1.47 (3 starts)
Ortiz - 3.77, 1.60 (3 starts)
Happ - one start, irrelevant
Romero - ditto

Ortiz is probably gone for the duration, Jenkins has been flailing at Buffalo for some unknown reason, so lets ignore them looking forward. Over the last 13 games the staff as a whole has an ERA of 1.98 and they have piled up a 10-3 record in a not unrelated result. obviously that won't last but it's this kind of run that playoff teams occasionally have.

Morrow was reported today to have suffered a setback last night and it seems clear he'll not be back before the ASB. IF he gets and stays healthy, those numbers surely get better and one would think that Rogers would regress some, but the two should balance out (in theory, anything could happen in real time). Buehrle is back consistent with his career numbers, and Dickey while disappointingly inconsistent, is in a range where it's reasonable to assume he is more likely to improve than to regress further. That means that in a rough-and-dirty look ahead, your rotation success largely turns on whether Josh Johnson is finally in his groove or not. This is still a group that can be above average enough to support the offense, particularly as long as the bullpen is so VERY good.

In terms of the playoffs, at the end of play on May 4, the Jays were 8.5 back of the wild card with nine teams to overcome in order to qualify. Now, 38 games later, it's 4.5 and there are "only"four teams in their way. And two of those are Cleveland and the crashing (18-25 since May 5) Royals. Ultimately it comes down to the lesser between the Rangers and A's, and the ultra competitive AL East contenders. On that score, here's the WC standings looking at only those games since the Jays turned it around:

Toronto: 23-15
Baltimore: 23-18 - 1.5 games back
Tampa Bay: 23-19 - 2
New York: 20-20 - 4
Texas: 20-21 - 4.5

Bottom line, as long as they continue to play as they have for the last (almost) quarter-season, they are in a position to be big factors in the WC race and not completely unrealistic to chase down the Red Sox. The odds are still kind of long, but certainly not crazy.

Other notes:

ITEM: Jose Reyes had his first rehab start on Monday night, and while Morrow got bad news, Reyes did not. My guess? The Jays will duck the Tampa turf and let Reyes fly out to Boston with the team to re-join the Jays' lineup on June 27. That will give him 4 games on grass before it's back to Skydome (yes, damnit, Skydome). 

ITEM: JA Happ is throwing bullpens and my guess is he might be 10 days or so away from getting in a game with the D-Jays (they are on the road, but play across the bay in Tampa on June 29 which keeps the big-leaguer off the bus...but whaddoIknow?) If all goes well for him, you might pencil him in for one start before the break. but if Rogers and Wang continue to patch well, the jays might be cautious and hold Happ back until after the break. it will be an interesting decision if neither rogers or Wang give ground how the Jays would handle the sudden surplus. Of the three, only Happ has options.

ITEM: Many fans speculate that when Reyes comes back, and the Jays have another roster-crowding decision to make (Kawasaki though lacking power has been a sparkplug and a fan favorite but he's the logical cut) that the team might opt to finally give Cabrera the much needed DL trip he's been avoiding. It makes sense to DL him after the Boston series and bring him back, presumably rested and healed, after the break.

ITEM: The jays have hired Jamie Evans as a pitching consultant. "Who?" you may be asking. He's the guy who developed the weighted ball routine that rescued Steve Delebar from obscurity and arguably re-energized Brett Cecil's career. Casey Janssen has begun working with him as well and while one should avoid assuming that it's a "magic bullet" one might fondly hope that fading prospects like Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire might decide to give it a go while they still have time.

Let's have a moment of silence for the pessimists who were certain the season was over already  by May 1 ...............................okay, enough of that. go Blue Jays!

Wednesday, 5 June 2013

The clock ticks...

As of the end of the month of May, the Jays can be fairly confident they have recovered their footing, in terms of the inexplicable awfulness which was April. But it is only the first layer of the foundation necessary to contend and much more needs to be built upon it. They can take comfort in the fact that they ran off a 13-9 stretch (.591, good enough for 95 wins over a full season) with only one start from Happ, none from Johnson, and really only one veteran starter being reasonably consistent in giving his team a good performance.

Logically that, and the hoped for return from injury of several important players should portend better days at some point but..."should"and reality seem to not be on speaking terms in Toronto. One things is for sure: they need to play about .650 ball the rest of the year and that's a VERY tall order.

Who's been carrying them the past (almost) four weeks?

  • Mark Buehrle has a 3.12 ERA over his last four starts
  • Melky Cabrera had a .979 OPS during that 13-9 stretch.
  • Over the same period, Jose Bautista posted a 1.140 OPS
  • May 5 (the start of the run) through the end of the month for Lind: 1.044
  • Same period for Edwin? .951    
That covers a LOT of failure - but it can't continue  so the failure needs to not continue as well. Turning to the monthly prospect report, let's peruse the farm system.


Gustavo Pierre - he seems like he's been around forever but he's still just 21 and maybe, just maybe, he's coming into his potential a bit. His OPS for may was a robust .930 for Lansing, a team without a ton of productive hitters to complement him.

Nick Bailgod - Not strictly a prospect, but had a heck of a month for Dunedin and deserves a nod.

Andy Burn and Kevin Pillar continue their steady production, but both were off from their April production, the former more than the latter. Truth is, among the players young enough to be considered any sort of prospect, very little has been happening in May that would be considered noteworthy


Sean Nolin - overlook the distraction of the possibly unwise detour to Toronto, and the kid has nothing to be ashamed of. Take away one bad inning in his last start (technically June 2, but I'm slow, deal with it) in which he gave up five hits - three of them to the DH playing LF - and his AA ERA stands at 1.48 with a better than 3:1 K:BB ratio.

Daniel Norris - seems to have figured something out. Control still needs a lot of work but since April 26, he has a 3.21 ERA with 39 K's in 26.1 IP

Marcus Stroman - ended May with a horrific 1 inning outing (which, one assumes, would have ended quicker if he didn't have a pitch count specification to reach) and he's been fine otherwise. That one outing is a bit inexplicable, but one assumes an outlier of that magnitude has an explanation of which we're not aware.  Still on the semi-fast track.

Joel Carreno - finally got the long overdue promotion to Buffalo after posting an insane 14.5 K/9 rate over 27.1 IP (over against a 2.6 BB/9 rate) in New Hampshire. He gave up a mere 12 hits over that stretch. Let's see how he fares at AAA.

John Stilson - control was a little shakey when he was bumped to AAA shortly after coming off the DL, but I get the impression he could push his way into the majors by September unless the team decides to save an option and send him to the AFL. Always assuming he stays healthy of course.

 Ajay Meyer - not routinely discussed as a"prospect, he is routinely kicking opposition-asses the closer in Dunedin while Danny Barnes struggles to stay off the DL. Dude was a non-drafted free agent, and at 25 he's way too old for the level, but he also sports at 12:1 K:BB ratio so they need to challenge him with two promotions this season unless they already know he can't handle it.

HM: Not"prospects" but let's not forget Josh Thole, who has to be chafing as he watches Henry Blanco be a black hole in Toronto while he (Thole) posts a .900+ OPS in Buffalo, and forever-hoped-for Dustin McGowan, who's had two missteps since moving up to Buffalo (in 7 outings) and seems to be working on a set schedule. The Jays have until June 12 to recall him.

also, on the farm side, one must sadly note for the record that Rickey Romero still hasn't gotten his head straight. There may be nothing sadder than watching a guy simply "lose it" despite no physical or age related source. It's no way for a career to end and I hope, on that basis alone, that Romero defies history and finds the handle.

Upcoming on Thursday, the 2013 draft which I've really had a hard time getting a  handle on. The guy I really want, and the guy we cold have had if we'd had the foresight to give the money we gave to DJ Thon to him instead, is Kris Bryant but there's NO WAY he falls to 10. There are a handful of other guys, any of whom I'd be content with at that spot (Fraizer, Medows, etc) but the other guy who both intrigues me and terrifies me is Austin Wilson. I drool over his ceiling, but am terrified of his potential to be an absolute bust. It will take me some time to digest the results before I'm willing to weigh in.

Thursday, 16 May 2013

Signs of Life?

Well, it's been a pretty sweet 10 day run, eh? Obviously the sample is pretty tiny but the feeling was always (with the saner folks at least) that there was no way that guys who were established successful guys would not ALL simply go over the cliff collectively at once. As I noted in the last entry, they HAD to be better than what they were playing, whether or not they were ever actually a playoff quality team.

Still waiting on the collection of scrubs in New York to revert to their true selves though.

In any case, let's acknowledge that no, this is not a .700 team for the rest of the year (they do need to play about .611 the rest of the year to reach 90 wins) and yes, you can't assume Ramon Ortiz and Chad Jenkins are going to be this good for very long (albeit Jenkins might end up being better than I had thought he was) but much of this success has been driven by several of the known quantity guys finding their groove. I'm willing to feel some confidence that this is not a mirage and the team is indeed coalescing into something resembling what we expected coming into the year.

I continue to be impatient for Lawrie to really get rolling, I continue to be frustrated that the best Rasmus can muster is "okay" and obviously my heart cries out for Jose Reyes every night; on the flip side, dig Adam Lind, eh? The strict platoon is certainly a factor but so far he's looking rejuvenated in his production and his approach. Among the pitchers, it was a total mystery what was going on with Buehrle, and as always I await Brandon Morrow stepping up to the elite level permanently, but I'm glad to see Dickey beginning to put the discomfort behind him, and like everyone else, I'm blown away by the continued ascension of Casey Janssen to elite status.  Brett Cecil is living up to my hopes and dreams too.

Some other tibbits you are probably aware of but I'll throw out there anyway...

  • Marcus Stroman will get his first start this weekend for New Hampshire. Some, notably Rich Griffin, have speculated that the Jays thin depth may open the door for Stroman to get some starts for the Jays relatively soon.
  • Dustin McGowan pitched a dominant inning for Dunedin in relief last night. if he continues to do well with his recovery (after each appearance) he could be relatively fast tracked to the major league pen when some oft he other guys start to wear down or prove themselves incapable (I'm looking at you, Brad Lincoln. What the hell, dude? Also, Esmil, don't think I haven't noticed your failings).
  • Sergio Santos is going for minor clean up surgery, estimated time-table for return is six weeks. It's only eight weeks until the ASB so I wouldn't be stunned if you didn't see him until after the break.
  • Daniel Norris finally had a good start.About damn time. McGuire pitched well tonight but I've seen that occasional success before - get back to me when it's five or six games in a row. John Stilson made a (quality) relief appearance last night, if indeed he is a reliever from now on, he's another guy you could easily see push his way into the Jays pen this season. Honestly, with Janssen closing and Cecil proving himself capeable of the Downs/Oliver type role next year, you might have Santos, McGowan, Stroman, and Stilson forming the core of the balance of the bullpen in 2014and beyond and all of those are potentially dominant guys as relievers. 
  • Whither Ricky Romero? Historically I'm the last person to too-quickly write a guy off but at this point I'm damned worried that he's lost his mojo for good.He needs to get going.

Finally, I'll amen the sentiment that I think is pretty commonplace in Jays fandom - can anyone do anything about the over-optimistic reporting on injuries? Everyone is always "just days away" exceptthat he doesn't ever actually return on time. Look at Brandon Morrow, who's now been pushed back to Saturday (he says and AA affirms that has a lot to do with him facing the Yankees instead of Ortiz which is a reasonable construction in a vacuum) - how many times have they "just pushed him back a couple of days" now? He's missed enough turns now he could have just been on the 15 Day DL in the first place.  I am a total cynic about when Johnson will be back simply because of the track record at this point. Hopefully things will turn around on that front too.

Wednesday, 1 May 2013

A Month

Yes, that's right- the Jays are a month into the season, with several angles worth talking about, and I couldn't be bothered to post about any of them. Why? Well, lots of reasons. There's the simple matter of available time of course, but there's also lack of interest.Simply put, I write to be read - and I don't get the impression hardly anyone was reading. Yes, there are 150-200 pageviews most every day, but how many of them are bots or whatever? I have no way of knowing.

As for interest, I can't tell from the comments (which were never heavy), I can't tell from the linkage from other blogs (as far as I can tell, non-existent), I can't tell that I'm not simply talking to myself.  Don't mistake this as a plea for attention or back-patting, I understand that I did this to myself with inactivity, and it's okay. Truth is, the"market" for Jays bloggage is so saturated I was never able to break into the top ranks. I'll readily admit that those which have are the result of far more effort. Better looking site, more pics, even graphics, more writers. All I traded on was on gals opinion.

So the cycle feeds on itself, less posts lead to less readers leads to less posts lead to less readers.

Still, from time to time I want a platform to contribute something so I'll keep plugging along intermittently until the fire rekindles, assuming it does at some point. Tonight i have two things on my mind which, were I more motivated, would have been two separate posts.

First, regarding the major league squad. It's all too easy to get down on the team and think that all that which we percived as win in the off-season was, in fact, more fail. But consider this. The Blue Jays played seven of
 their last eleven games against the Yankees and lost six of those.

Looking at Baseball Reference, here's the busiest starting nine forthe team that manhandled our boys, with OPS+:

Francisco Cervalli - 138
Lyle Overbay - 85
Robinson Cano - 165
Eduardo Nunez - 29
Jayson Nix - 46
Vernon Wells - 151
Brett Gardner - 104
Ichero Suzuki - 68
Travis Hafner - 189

Except for Cano and Hafner (who hasn't been this good in SEVEN YEARS) that's basically a AAA team. How many of those guys would you gladly have plugged in on April 4 in place of their Jays equivalent and happily considered it an upgrade? Yet they are 6.5 games ahead of Toronto. The cliche "you can't predict baseball" was never more true than it is right now. I'd be much more philosophical about the team taking a while to gel if I wasn't flabbergasted at the Yankee's luck.

Blech. Enough of that.

On to the minor leagues.

One of my traditions is a monthly review of the better news from the minors, in the form of a "hot list" - why not continue that? I'll confine myself to those generally regarded as actual prospects, with a nod later towards the journeymen who started off hot.


1. Andy Burns - The Dunedin 3B is dominating his team and is right there among the top 3 or4 best hitters in the FSL. Most interesting, he has 15 walks and only 10 strikeouts.

2. Kevin Pillar - A somewhat slow start has gone en fuego. - Pillar sports a steadily climbing OPS of .880 and he also has the walk/strikeout thing under control. He's an OF in New Hampshire and it's anyone's guess whether the team will make room for Pillar at Buffalo if he keeps this up.

3. Ryan Schimpf - a marginal prospect who plays the IF but without a true defensive home, you have to tip your hat, though, to leading the EL in homers and the runner up spot (by a margin of ONE) in the walks column.

4. Moises Sierra - I've never been a big believer here but he's raking to start the year,with an average that flirts with .400 as the stand out stat. On the other hand, the strikeout-to-walk ration is still not impressive.

Names of note: Josh Thole is raking, Anthony Gose is not in a grove, Mauro Gomez is earning his keep, Mike Crouse started well but it's only4 games, The three top prospect in the Lansing lineup - Dalton Pompey, Christian Lopes, and Santiago Nessy - are just "okay"at this point.

Meanwhile, Jim Negrych sports a .429 BA in Buffalo with solid supporting stats.


1. Roberto Osuna - ignore the slightly elevated (but still quite good) ERA andlook at the ratios.22.1 IP, 31 K, and a mere4 BB. This kid might be some good.

2. Aaron Sanchez - not dominating the way Osuna has but beginning to show more control, which is the main thing he's working on.

Also, take not of Joel Carreno and Chad Beck protesting their assignment to AA by dominating the opposition.

There have been flashes of brilliance elsewhere but these are the deserving.

Friday, 5 April 2013

Gettin' Down on the Farm

After all the deals this winter, there's admittedly less to get wound up about among the prospects, but I  have confidence that there will be a number of interesting stories this summer. Now that the full season rosters are officially set, let's take a brief tour shall we?

Here's thirty plus guys on the full season roster for you to watch.


The active  Buffalo squad has an average age of 29.68 (the Blue Jays average 30.35) and this is mostly a veteran squad. I could list off the names but few there be that would interest you from the standpoint of potential major league contributions. So I'm just going to stick with those.

Anthony Gose - Has his instructions concerning those parts of his game he needs to polish. many think he's going to break out this year. Manager Marty Brown, who had Grady Sizemore in AAA said "Grady was a manager's dream, Gose is better than Grady."

Moises Sierra - I remain convinced that Sierra is ultimately a flawed, marginal guy as a major leaguer. But  he's also clearly the second best prospect among the hitters here and he may well change my mind someday.

Ryan Goins - His ceiling might be as a Mark DeRosa type bench guy, not that there's anything wrong with that. What he's trying to avoid is becoming a slower version of Mike McCoy.

Josh Thole - not really a prospect, of course, with his major league experience, but he does represent a player on this team that may be called upon to make a difference in Toronto. I think that his pre-injury self was pretty impressive and hope he gets that form back.

Brad Lincoln - again, not a "prospect" but a guy that by all rights is too good to be in AAA.

Sleepers: Out of ST, there was good buzz at one time or another around Mickey Storey, Justin Germano,Niel Wagner, and old-timer David Bush. Also, Todd Redmond also has major league experience, as does Michael Schwimmer (who's on the major league DL but figures to land here when he comes off).

New Hampshire

AJ Jimenez - on the DL with a "tender shoulder" (IIRC), if the trip is not too long he should climb right back onto the prospect radar as the season wears on.

Sean Ochinko - slightly different skill set, but has a chance to be a Yan Gomes level guy or a tick better.

Kevin Pillar - Will need to build on his great 2012 and prove he deserves to be well regarded. Still quite reminiscent of Reed Johnson in many ways (which is a compliment).

Kenny Wilson - has underwhelmed to this point, but he must have shown them something in ST to break camp this high. Definitely his year to shine if he's going to.

Deck McGuire - You know his story. Can he right the ship?

Chad Jenkins - Opens on the DL, the depth chart in front of him as a reliever got much deeper this winter so he surely motivated to try to prove he deserves to start. Both these guys will be eyeing a chance to move up to Buffalo with a strong first half.

Sean Nolin - also starts out on the DL. I'm not sure of the seriousness of the situation, I believe it to be minor. This is the guy Alex has HIS eyes on in New Hampshire.

Jon Stilson - same song third verse. Wants to jump off the DL and get lined up for a promotion. Any or all of these guys may well make a difference in AAA this year.

Danny Barnes - sensing a pattern? also on the DL. One to watch if he proves healthy.

Sleepers: Matt Wright, Evan Crawford, Trystan Magnuson,. Joel Carreno, Marcus Walden (whom I expect to go back to Dunedin once the DL starts clearing up).


Things look to pick up on the lower levels but this is a thin roster. Besides Ricky Romero trying to get right and presumably the beginning of Dustin McGowans's next trip towards the majors, there are a few names to note...

Aaron Sanchez - Jays #1 prospect looks to polish his already impressive game.

Michael Crouse - had a wasted year in 2012, needs to get back in the 2011 groove.

Marcus Knecht - ditto.

Andy Burns - Put himself on the map last year before being injured. Converted shortstop has the chance to open eyes further as this line-up will need him.

(Roster note - the roster lists Egan Smith as restricted, and Alan Farina as active. but Farina got a drug suspension (substance of abuse) and he might be the one who's actually suspended)


Now we're talking.

Roberto Osuna - all eyes are on the very young and very talented Mexican.

Daniel Norris - reportedly his ugly numbers last season hid some moments of excellence. He'll need to have more of the latter and less of the former this time (and his first appearance wasn't encouraging).

Santiago Nessy - the young catcher got a ton of praise this winter, both for his plate skills and his intangibles. The Jays think they really have something here.

Christian Lopes - one of my personal favorites, I expected him to be closing in on the 2B job in Toronto by the time Izturus' contract expires.

Dalton Pompey - highly regarded hometown prospect, needs to stay healthy and have an impressive season to really open up eyes outside the organization.

Chris Hawkins - star faded a lot last year. Seriously needs a break out.

Kellen Sweeney/Gus Perrie - two guys at 3B, both having progressed after a lot of early struggles diminished their prospect status. I'm a bit surprised to seethe Jays create an awkward situation with both on the same roster.

Taylor Cole/Jaaviar Avendano - the twin pillars of last year's championship Vancouver rotation, Cole is somewhat old to be a prospect at this level, though that's mitigated some by his time away from the game on a Mormon mission. And Avendano will have to overcome the reality that minor league Rule 5 picks are almost never considered legit prospects. I wouldn't be stunned to see Cole challenged with a promotion if he starts off well.

Griffin Murphy - be interesting to see if he ever gets back into the rotation. It seems awfully early to consign such a well regarded draftee to the 'pen.

The obvious missing guy - Marcus Stroman. He's listed on the NH roster but his comments suggest when he's activated (third week of May) he'll begin his year in Dunedin. The expectations are that he'll move fast though. If he does well look for him to split 10-12 starts between the two teams and go to Buffalo for the second half. As one possibility, if he pitches in Dunedin through the FSL all star break, then gets promoted to AA and pitches there until the EL all-star break, then to Buffalo, his record would have 5 A-ball starts, 6 AA starts, and 9-10 in AAA. Then either Toronto for September or, more likely, off to Arizona. Which is not to say the team won't give in to the temptation to call him faster under the right circumstances.

It's far too early to form up the short-season rosters but Vancouver could be fascinating. consider the guys who might be on that team:

Giant hard-throwing lefty Matt Smoral, the Latin trio of Alberto Tirado, Yefry Del Rosario and Jario Labourt.Tom Robson or Mark Biggs or maybe even Tyler Gonzales would finish out an all-prospect rotation.

DJ Thon might well be here trying to finally show his promise at SS, Matt Dean will likely have a chance to earn the 3B job here. The outfield, too, might be "all prospect" with lightning fast DJ Davis flanked by Jacob Anderson and Dwight Smith Jr. That would potentially be the most interesting team in the system.

Tuesday, 2 April 2013


Opening Day at last! (After everyone else has there's)

All the previewing and prognosticating and hand-wringing and gushing has been done for now, it's time to see what we actually have. There's not really any new news to write about today - well, the minor league rosters were set but I'm not going to sully opening day by extensively discussing the minors, but you can't let opening day go by without comment.

So here's my rundown of expectations:

Dickey will be excellent early on as the league get's their first look at him, and mildly less so (but still quite good) as the season wears on.

Morrow will, if healthy, be a very strong Cy Young candidate, both because he's that damn good and because he'll enjoy the bump that comes from following Dickey against the same team in many of his starts.

Buehrle will be quite similar to what he was last year, he's a rock.

Johnson might well match up with Morrow and give the Jays two legit Cy contenders into the late summer, again, there's some injury risk.

Happ is in an unenviable situation in that he'd have to be outstanding to be secure. I think he'll be a very nice little pitcher, better than most of the #5 guys in the league...but I don't think he will finish the year in the rotation.

Santos will be "Closer A" at some point just because he'll gain momentum during the early season as the Jays be cautions with Janssen. Janssen will be "Closer B" and my guess is you'll see something like 25-30 saves for Santos and 15-20 for Janssen.

Oliver and Delebar will be the main 8th inning guys and the latter will put himself on the radar in a big way as a known-name around the league.

Cecil will be a pleasant surprise and improve as the season goes on. He'll position himself to take over Oliver's role next year. Loup will be good overall but have occasional adjustment periods. Rogers will end up being the goat who's okay but not as good as the rest. Jefress will be headed to Buffalo within a week or so.

Jose Reyes will have maybe his best year ever, certainly one that would be in the conversation.

Cabrera will be above average, and quite consistent, but not on a level with his career year last year. More like 2011.

Bautista will, I think, press early on and not be completely "in the groove" but will heat up with the weather.

Encarnacion, in my view, will probably regress some but still be the most obvious candidate to hit 4th.

Lind...uh....who the hell knows?

 Lawrie I have irrationally high hopes for. If he can stay on the field I look for him in Longoria country.

Rasmus. i don't think can stay irrationally bad. He may never hit as i am convinced his talents would warrant for his habit of getting in his own head, but I figure he'll still be above average for the position.

 Arencibia should progress a bit, on the margins, but is more or less what he is. AJ Pierzinski is the ceiling.

 Izturus/Bonfacio - I expect the latter to "run away with" the majority of the at bats (See what i did there?) eventually. Having he and Reyes both gunning for 50 steals in the same lineup should be a lot of fun to watch

I KNOW this sounds like unbridled optimism, but heck, is it not true that injuries are largely unpredictable, and that freak bad years can come out of the blue for almost any player? It's a mugs game to try to predict who's going to be the unlucky soul. We just have to hope that we don't have too many ugly surprises.

 Bonus prophecy: Dustin McGowan might be the guy who takes Happ's job before Romero gets his chance.

Wednesday, 27 March 2013

On the clock...

And as I write this I learn that time has run out for Ricky Ro to right his ship and break with the Jays. In anticipation of Opening Day one week from tonight, and with most rosters pretty close to settled, I wanted to take a look at how the AL East rivals match up.

Clearly, I'm not generally the go-to girl for in depth statistical analysis of player quality, but I'll still offer my impressions and if nothing else, provide a handy reference for what these teams intend to go to war with next week. I used the recently published Fangraphs positional rankings, which uses a projected WAR figure which I won't explain (find out the details at the link) as the sole source (other than my own opinions) but for simplicity sake I've separated the starters from the bench.  also, I totaled each player's WAR across all positions for which they were projected to contribute, again for simplicity. My goal here is total projected WAR, while there's was specific to positional strength. Finally, I disregarded those bench players beyond the 4 I listed on each team. The extent to which this affects the overall rankings should be marginal.

Commentary after each list will note if there's some obvious concern (i.e., for instance, the 2012 figure is strikingly different from their previous 2-3years of work)

(Note: projections were published before Vernon Wells was traded - you be the judge of how much that deal affects the rankings)



1. Matt Weiters - 4.1 
2. JP Arencibia - 2.2
3. Jarrod Salalamacchia - 1.6
4. Jose Molina - 1.0
5. Francisco Cervelli - 0.8

Of note here is who actually wins the full time job in New York. but since they project the same WAR for both Cervelli and Stewart, it doesn't really matter. 

First Base

1. Edwin Encarnacion - 3.3
2. Mark Texeria - 2.9*
3. Mike Napoli - 2.2
4. Chris Davis - 1.6
5. James Loney - 0.9

The obvious caveat here is how long Texeria is out. The author (in this case Matt Klassen) factors in projected playing time but I'm not sure the projected 525 PA is a solid prediction or not. As it goes down (potentially) then so, too, do the Yankees projection (unless you put a lot of stock in Wells' contribution).

Second Base

1. Robinson Cano - 5.1
2. Ben Zobrist -5.1
3. Dustin Pedroia - 4.9
4. Macir Izturus - 1.8
5. Brian Roberts - 0.4

Note well that Zobrist's high total derives from the ability to play multiple valuable positions. Izturus gains from that too, of course, but he's far from being the hitter Zobrist is. also of note here is the impossibility of projecting Brian Roberts because no one can say how much he'll be able to play or how well.


1. Jose Reyes - 3.2
2. JJ Hardy - 3.0
3. Yunel Escobar - 2.8
4. Derek Jeter - 1.7
5. Stephen Drew - 1.7

Over his last six seasons in which he exceeded 500 PA, Reyes averaged 5.2 WAR - over the last three since the injury that cost him most of a season, he's averaged 4.4 and that includes the only season of the six in which he fell below 4.5 (2010, coming off the injury season). With all due respect to the projection systems, I cannot let such a low projection for him go unchallenged. It's at least 1.0 too low given his age and recent health.

Third Base

1. Evan Longoria -6.4
2. Brett Lawrie - 4.2
3. Kevin Youklis - 3.4
4. Will Middlebrooks - 2.8
5. Manny Machado - 2.5

The author rightly notes the potential for Lawrie to take a quantum leap, I'll go ahead and make the assertion that he could easily be in the top 3-5 at his position in baseball in 2013.I'll also concede that both Middlebrooks and Machado have more helium than lead in their potential futures.

Left Field

1. Brett Gardner - 3.5
2. Matt Joyce - 2.4
3. Melky Cabrera - 2.1
4. Nolan Reimold - 1.3
5. Johnny Gomes - 0.9

Projecting Cabrera to regress to the level of his Yankees days seems a bit much, in my view. Gardner gets a big boost from the projected time in CF while Granderson recovers, and Joyce a smaller bump from the projection that he'll open in RF until Myers is recalled. 

Center Field 

1. Adam Jones - 3.3
2. Desmond Jennings - 3.2
3. Jacoby Elsbury - 2.9
4. Curtis Granderson - 2.2
5. Colby Rasmus - 1.8 

Elsbury suffers from playing time concerns due to injury history, Granderson likewise.While I don't share the pessimism on Rasmus, I'm not in a position to dispute it.  I will note, though, that he only need to improve by 1.0 WAR to land right in the thick of this list. It doesn't take an All-Star year to do that.

Right Field

1. Jose Bautista - 4.6
2. Shane Victorino -2.7
3. Nick Markakis - 2.3
4. Will Myers - 1.4
5. Ichero Suzuki - 0.9

Bautista's 2012 pro-rates to about 6.0 WAR, which is pretty much in line with the two previous years.  I'll say the projections are selling him short here. Victorino is so high because they project him to play CF in the presumed absence of the likely-to-be injured Elsbury.

Designated Hitter

1. David Ortiz - 2.6
2. Adam Lind -1.1
3.Travis Hafner - 1.0
4. Luke Scott - 0.8
5. Wilson Betimit - 0.5

Lind edges out Hafner on the basis of his potential to play 1B on occasion, which hafner won't likely be doing.


1. Rays (Lobotan, Johnson, Rodriguez, Fuld) - 2.5
2. Red Sox (Ross, Carp, Ciriaco, Nava)- 1.9
3. Blue Jays (Blanco, Bonifacio, DeRosa, Davis) - 1.8
4. Yankees (Stewart, Rivera, Nunez, Boesch) - 1.5
5. Orioles (Teagarden, Canzler, Flaherty, McLouth) 1.1

My observations here is that possibly Bonifacio's playing time was under-projected, and that I would have assumed Teagarden had more value. On the other hand, the Rays get perhaps a bit more credit here than they otherwise would because of the assumption that Johnson will gain some noticeable at-bats in the period while the Rays wait on the clock to tick on Will Myers. The Rays do use their bench morethan any of their rivals here though.

Totals so far, offense only:

1. Rays - 25.7
2. Blue Jays - 25.0
3. Yankees - 22.0
4. Red Sox - 21.6
5. Orioles - 19.6

Am I the only one here who thinks the undervaluing of Bautista, Reyes, and possibly Cabrera - to say nothing of the potential progress of Lawrie and/or Rasmus - ought to be more than sufficient to account for 0.7 WAR? I am biased of course but I don't see anything close to a similar undervaluing of the Rays hitters, and in fact I might contend that both Zobrist and Jennings are a bit high.

On to the pitching...

#1 Starter

1. CC Sabathia - 5.2
2. David Price - 4.8
3. Jon Lester - 3.9
4. Jason Hammel - 3.2
5. RA Dickey - 3.1

SERIOUSLY? The models make Dickey out as a slightly worse bet than Jason HAMMEL? You're kidding me, right? The author notes that dickey seems to be undervalued and encourages an upgrade in yur mental adjustments. No s***. Add one full WAR here, on my authority.

#2 Starter

1. Hiroki Kuroda - 3.1
2. Ryan Dempster - 2.9
3. Brandon Morrow - 2.5
4. Wie-Yen Chen - 2.0
5. Jeremy Hellickson - 1.4

Again...huh? Hands up everyone in baseball who'd rather have Ryan Dempster in 2013 as Brandon Morrow? anyone/ Anyone at all? Buhller? also, by the way, I'll take Hellickson over Chen, and I'm not a huge Hellickson fan.

#3 Starter

1. Andy Petitte - 3.3
2. Matt Moore - 2.7
3. Mark Buehrle - 2.3
4. Clay Buchholtz - 2.3
5. Chris Tillman - 1.6

Sensing a pattern? FORTY year old Andy Petitte is a full win better than Mark Buehrle? while throwing (projected) 40 fewer innings?The seven years younger Beuhrle has had exactly two season in his career under 3.3 - I'd also project Moore to best Petitte and, if healthy (a big if) Buchholtz as well. Petitte's numbers did pro-rate to 3.4 last year over a similar number of innings, but we're to accept that the models saw no age-related decline? He only put up 2.1 in his last year before "retirement."
#4 Starter
1. Josh Johnson - 2.9
2. Alex Cobb - 2.4
3. Ivan Nova - 2.1
4. John Lackey - 1.7
5.  Miguel Gonzalez - 1.4

Pop quiz - Josh Johnson or Ivan Nova? if you even paused to consider Nova, go away - you don't know what a baseball looks like. Johnson, in far from classic form for a significant portion of 2012, still put up 0.9 more than this.

#5 Starter

1. Feliz Doubront - 2.1
2. Rickey Romero* - 1.6
3. Phil Hughes -1.3
4. Jake Arrieta - 1.3
5. Jeff Neimann - 1.0

Obviously, you have to adjust for the Romero situation here, but he's only projected for 137 IP in this model so it seems as if that's been done already.

Other projected starters in total

1. Yankees - 1.5
2. Red Sox - 1.1
3. Orioles - 1.1
4. Jays - 0.9
5. Rays - 0.9

Sigh. Not going to sweat half a win.

 Totals for rotations: 

1. Yankees - 16.3
2. Red Sox - 14.0
3. Jays - 13.3
4. Rays - 13.2
5. Orioles - 10.6

Highly disputable in my view. I could argue that any or all of four different Jays starters are projected at least 1.0 too low. Two of them workhorse guys for whom injuries are not an issue. The writer points out that a lot of Tampa's run preventions success comes from excellent fielding results, which is why they appear to be somewhat undervalued and mentally I adjust their totals accordingly. Petitte is as much as a full win too high. In reality, I'd suggest all of the top four fall somewhere between 14 and 15 total.


1. Rivera - 1.4
2. Santos - 1.4
3. Hanarahan - 1.0
4. Rodney - 1.0
5. Johnson - 0.9

Yes, Janssen is ostensibly the closer but since they are so tightly bunched, i decided to use the guy with the higher projection here. Let's also pause to note here that WAR, as a rule, doesn't much care for relievers in general.


1. Yankees (Robertson/Logan) - 2.2
2. Red Sox (Bailey/Uehara) - 2.1
3. Blue Jays (Janssen/Oliver) - 2.0
4. Rays (Peralta/McGee) - 1.5
5.  Orioles (Stroup/O'Day) - 1.2

Not much to complain about here, other than perhaps wondering whether Bailey is ready to give 65 innings this year.

Other relievers

1. Yankees - 0.7
2. Blue Jays - 0.7
3. Red Sox - 0.5
4. Rays - 0.4
5. Orioles - 0.4

You should have expected something like this - it's usually inconsequential who the "other relievers" are unless they are horribly bad.

Bullpen totals

1. Yankees- 4.3
2. Blue Jays - 4.1
3. Red Sox - 3.6
4. Rays - 2.9
5. Orioles - 2.5

Pitching staff totals

1. Yankees - 20.6
2. Red Sox - 17.6
3. Blue Jays - 17.3
4. Rays - 16.1
5. Orioles - 13.1

Obviously based on my previous remarks you know I question this. off the Cuff I'd make it more like

Jays - 20.3
Yanks - 20.1
Red Sox - 17.6
Rays - 17.6

But...I'll lay that aside and go with the opinion of the cold numbers and the objective evaluators of those numbers. So with that said, here's the overall WAR totals:

1. Yankees - 42.6
2. Blue Jays - 42.3
3. Rays - 41.8
4. Red Sox - 39.2
5. Orioles - 32.7

So if you've been makingthe AL East a 3-way dead heat, well, the projections agree.  You'll forgive me if I assert that a reasonable intuition regarding the numbers presented here make the Rays and Yanks virtually even and the Blue Jays 2-4 games better.

If we assume, just for ease of discussion, that replacement level is a team that would win 50 games (I know, it's not that simple and I may have that total wrong - so sue me) then this would produce standings like this:

Yankees: 93-69
Blue Jays 92-70
Rays 92-70
Red Sox 89-73
Orioles: 83-79

I'm not going to take time to work out whether that would even be realistically possible given the intra-division schedule - but just adjusting it for my own views (i.e. that Reyes, Bautista, Morrow, Dickey, Buehrle, Johnson and maybe Cabrera are a full win short - and giving them credit for only half that much...and docking the Yanks for Petitte and too much optimism re Tex and Granderson...and bumping the Rays for the defense notation regarding their run-prevention ability....

Blue Jays: 95-67
Rays: 93-69
Yankees: 91-71
Red Sox: 89-73
Orioles: 83-79

But that's 31 wins more than the division accumulated last year., 16 more than their best year in the
last'll do a little intuitive adjustment to get my final prediction

Blue Jays: 94 - 68
Rays: 89-72
Yankees: 87-75
Red Sox: 84-78
Orioles: 79-83

I'll go with Detroit to win the AL Central (shocker I know) and Texas to re-bound slightly (and benefit from Oakland coming back to earth a bit) and win the AL West. Just for fun I'll call the angels the other Wild Card. Jays\ and Rangers in the ALCS. I'll go with the Nats to represent the NL.